Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 51744.801142 54867.391885 57998.524028 61371.208702 64898.840636 68477.010628 72378.245954
2024-10-20 46317.061809 51044.337350 55927.547381 61340.425850 67164.087565 73232.923233 80026.992656
2024-10-27 42333.881060 48109.292192 54216.959208 61140.169332 68752.479564 76849.941387 86097.081662
2024-11-03 40074.612519 46712.000635 53867.960893 62128.253036 71371.073938 81365.351366 92959.329447
2024-11-10 38107.987242 45424.722396 53447.793145 62856.657695 73544.824054 85265.137392 99044.114674
2024-11-17 36226.957348 44075.671586 52815.830841 63213.240395 75185.447816 88478.838892 104292.983156
2024-11-24 34369.170458 42626.177919 51954.434055 63199.608575 76310.609683 91035.937252 108743.018676
2024-12-01 32902.127759 41539.618807 51428.407006 63495.228566 77725.212998 93873.869281 113481.786377
2024-12-08 31440.468952 40377.826744 50740.841800 63533.328174 78782.047697 96256.156589 117666.748975
2024-12-15 30590.986619 39900.483548 50819.859956 64439.984469 80832.091959 99780.039416 123183.875722
2024-12-22 29252.469282 38763.420781 50050.470008 64278.171397 81568.162312 101728.524736 126830.609232
2024-12-29 28623.223560 38467.348241 50271.682322 65290.214846 83697.075726 105323.443889 132439.748293
2025-01-05 27738.004716 37829.571470 50062.050998 65775.654459 85203.933330 108209.159348 137261.325931
2025-01-12 26691.959036 36948.774454 49517.885418 65820.591688 86154.636418 110420.149910 141281.986357
2025-01-19 25601.055526 35967.424436 48808.958090 65624.524901 86779.596236 112217.484537 144794.880261
2025-01-26 25150.253949 35793.158699 49101.791355 66673.289660 88943.907921 115898.405781 150622.816590
2025-02-02 24606.363548 35472.494879 49187.812134 67444.601762 90753.521343 119145.990594 155935.317941
2025-02-09 23924.556008 34942.243636 48980.812053 67821.964001 92053.864734 121760.125855 160474.469511
2025-02-16 23115.451792 34212.286252 48488.104293 67807.571791 92838.883005 123723.110050 164205.876076
2025-02-23 22484.561036 33700.420690 48260.884224 68120.293080 94030.011977 126190.688500 168574.173429
2025-03-02 21776.918181 33059.070962 47840.500637 68160.595962 94856.068228 128191.607023 172359.710746
2025-03-09 21464.869769 32951.475072 48121.724638 69119.576150 96871.954900 131707.534771 178077.010172
2025-03-16 20735.111334 32237.298792 47566.374680 68948.435927 97400.328051 133322.089411 181385.006954